Coronavirus Outbreak Update 6: Asymptomatic Transmission & Incubation Period


welcome to another MedCram update so
where are we currently well as it stands the number of deaths is up from 132 to
currently 170 and the number infected globally to a current seven thousand
seven hundred and eighty-three now these numbers have to be taken with a grain of
salt first of all I’m going to give you a link where you can get a update any
time of day on the number of cases and it’s updated by Johns Hopkins University
and the link to that is in the description below the other thing though
is that there is a real shortage of the tests and so that’s gonna affect both
the numerator here in terms of deaths and also the denominator obviously when
someone is very sick they’re gonna be wanting to make sure that they know
whether or not this is the novel coronavirus
as it stands right now good news is a lot of these countries outside of China
have really been static in terms of the number of cases USA is still at five
Canada is still at three one thing that shows the concern here in terms of
spreading the disease is the case of the ten-year-old that was essentially
asymptomatic let’s talk about that so apparently this ten-year-old child with
his parents also grandparents flew from Shenzhen all the way up to Wuhan and
this was around the end of December and they were there of course for the new
year and after about three to four days they came down with symptoms at that
time there was a little bit interest in about you know twenty to thirty cases of
pneumonia that had been undiagnosed in the hospital but it wasn’t certainly the
international level of news as it is today both the parents and the
grandparents became ill and in further review of this it seems as though the
family went to actually go visit some loved ones that were in the hospital at
the time so the parents and the grandparents became ill and they were
tested and by about this point of course if you add 3 to 4 days to
December 29 they knew that they were dealing with a viral outbreak and of
course they tested positive for the novel coronavirus and the grandparents
were tested and of course they turned out to be positive for the novel
coronavirus well the parents insisted that their 10 year old boy be tested
even though he was asymptomatic and they didn’t want to test the boy because he
wasn’t showing any signs of illness but they went ahead and tested him anyway
and the 10 year old child tested guess what positive for the novel coronavirus
even though he was completely asymptomatic didn’t have fever cough
shortness of breath when they did a cat scan though and they looked they found
that he actually had signs of pneumonia so here’s this thing where people can be
asymptomatic have very mild disease but be shedding the virus and of course this
is concerning with the recent news of this plane taking our diplomats from
China back and landing at the March Air Force Reserve Base and it is there that
they are all under voluntary quarantine for at least 3 days where they’re being
checked out and actually having nasal swabs and things of that nature but the
question really comes down to is how good of a quarantine can we do and how
good of a blockade or lockdown can we do how well can we screen people coming in
through the airports if people may not have fevers may not have these sorts of
symptoms and they’re coming in with the virus and they’re shedding it and it’s
spreading interestingly a couple of points that I want to show is it only
took about 3 to 4 days to show symptoms in the parents and the grandparents
that’s a pretty short incubation period so this ten-year-old shows that it’s
possible and I think this is the basis for the Health Minister in China saying
that there may be some cases where this can spread even though people may be
asymptomatic it also highlights something else as well what they’re
noticing is that the young may have a milder course whereas the elderly have a
more severe course it’s kind of a dichotomy I saw one article that brought
this up and you’ve got this continuum where as on one side you have
Czar’s which actually was a coronavirus and the other side you have flu and what
is the continuum here well with SARS this was a very severe disease but you
couldn’t really spread it unless you were symptomatic so SARS basically
allowed authorities to isolate it and to prevent its spread so severe however not
going to spread in an asymptomatic patient take the other extreme here
which is the flu where generally speaking you get the flu you take some
over-the-counter medication not a big deal but you can spread the flu when you’re
asymptomatic it has more of a shedding and so the question is is where exactly
in this continuum is this new corona virus going to be certainly it has some
of the components on this end which is where you can have it be asymptomatic
but you can shed it where as we can see very clearly that this thing does have a
mortality rate especially in the old so I think time is gonna tell on which side
this corona virus is gonna come down on again go to the Johns Hopkins website
and you can get immediate updates and a little map out and we’ll show you where
things are spreading well this is the update thanks for joining us

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